The sprain in the relationship between the governments of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Donald Trump has as a background the intention of the Republican to remove Brazil from a position of “headache” to his administration.

“Now, I believe the challenge is to find some kind of symbolic victory so that Trump can say he was successful, without keeping Brazil as a headache”, affirms Brian Winter, vice-president of the Americas Council. This group brings together multinational companies operating in Latin America.

Winter, who lived in Latin America for a decade, including in Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico, is also chief editor of the magazine Americas Quarterly, affiliated with the Americas Council’s research and debate center, based in the United States.

The specialist highlights that every communication by the White House after the meeting in Malaysia has been very positive, focused on showing a disposition for a deal. After the meeting between Lula and Trump, deal-breakers have already begun meeting.

The Brazilian government hopes that the American administration includes more products in the exception list, such as coffee and meat, or that it drops the 50% tariff on Brazilian products altogether.

Winter observes that this change in Trump’s posture is almost as if the affirmations that the tariffs were an answer to an alleged hunt against the former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) never happened.

“I have previously said that Trump would never abandon the Bolsonaro family. Now, I’m not so sure. Everything we have seen over the last weeks suggests that Trump is looking forward to leave all of this behind”, affirms.

Even with the positive outlook, the analyst believes that there will be pressure for Lula to make some concessions for a deal. He points to the concession of rare earths as one of the most evident themes.

“Brazil has the second largest reserves in the world and offers a true alternative to China's dependency. This is an area where the interests of Brazil and the U.S. converge, and I’ve talked to people in both governments who are looking forward to focusing negotiations in this sector”, affirms.

Winter also suggests that controversial themes, such as big tech regulations, can arise during talks, but that there is a good American desire to solve the question and stop dealing with this “headache”.

“This can be yet another case in which the Lula administration opts for a firm stance, and, in the end, prevails, because the wish of the White House is to no longer have to deal with this problem”, affirms.

Read the complete interview with Brian Winter

What do you believe is at the center of this strain in Brazil–USA relations?

President Trump lost patience with Brazil and its efforts to help the Bolsonaro family. A narrative was sold to him in July, which proved false – that tariffs and other punishments would keep the former president out of jail and bring him back to power. As we now know, the opposite happened. Lula got stronger.

There was no path for Bolsonaro even to be allowed to run again in 2026. A series of corporate leaders visited the White House and reported directly to the president. They complained that the tariffs were hurting their interests. At some point, probably in August, Trump threw his hands into the air and decided that enough was enough.

Why have this conflict with Brazil in a moment when so many of his policies, particularly in the Middle East, were being successful? When markets are at all-time highs? So, he has the order to reach a deal. Now, I believe that the challenge is to find some trophy that lets him affirm he was victorious, while also not having Brazil as a headache anymore.

Despite still not having made a deal, is it possible to say that the Trump–Lula relations are entering a new stage, without the Bolsonaro factor as being determining in these talks?

My understanding of this is developing. I have previously said that Trump would never abandon the Bolsonaro family. Now, I’m not so sure. Everything we have seen over the last weeks suggests that Trump is looking forward to leaving all of this behind.

If you look at official White House communications after his meeting with Lula in Malaysia, everything is very positive – and focused on reaching a deal. It’s as if the Bolsonaro question never existed. We have seen this from Trump before – remember earlier this year, when he was talking about annexing Greenland and retaking the Panama Canal? Or building hotels in Gaza? Sometimes, when he sees a policy is not working, he simply moves on. I could still be surprised, depending on how discussions go at the ministerial level. We shall see. But I think the tendency is to move on.

In practice, what impact can this meeting have on sensitive topics of the bilateral agenda, such as big techs, the environment, and regional security?

There will be pressures for some kind of concession by Lula. The most obvious area is rare lands. This is a global question for the United States. It has become increasingly urgent in the last few months, as China tried to leverage them against Washington. The need for energy transitions, particularly for military purposes, is immense. Brazil has the second-largest reserves in the world and offers a genuine alternative to Chinese dependency. So, this is an area where the interests of Brazil and the US converge, and I’ve talked with people in both governments, looking forward to focused talks on this issue.

This is not an easy deal, right?

Its not an easy deal, but it should be possible. Now, my question is: How many of these other sensitive issues will be brought to the negotiation table? The Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Commerce Representative Jamieson Greer could try to make digital regulation a topic. But what happens if this becomes controversial? This can be yet another case where the Lula administration decides to play it tough and, in the end, prevail, because the White House’s desire is to no longer deal with this headache.

Is it possible that Brazil manages to have a mediating role between Trump and other Latin-American countries with left-wing governments, especially Venezuela and Colombia? If not as a mediator, then how can Brazil enter this equation?

Lula’s diplomatic abilities are well known. He seems to have Trump’s respect, based on what we saw in Malaysia. However, I believe that the White House will conduct its Venezuela policies separately – it has different objectives in this regard. I don’t think they’d be interested in a mediator. They are interested in bombing Venezuela, trying to bare teeth to cartels everywhere, and bringing about regime change in Caracas without really landing US troops there. I don’t know if all of this is possible, and I don’t know how Brazil and other governments will react. Depending on how things happen, this is a subject that can make US–Brazil relations sour again. If Lula becomes a vocal opposition to American military action, for instance. There will not be a dull day in 2025.