Since assuming the presidency of COP30, Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago has been advocating that the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) would be a significant achievement for the Brazilian climate conference.

At the eve of the event in Belém, the bet materializes as the leading ace to guarantee concrete commitments during the first COP held in the Amazon region.

The mechanism, formally introduced during New York Climate Week, promises to mobilize US$125 billion in permanent capital, distributing $ 4 billion each year to developing countries with tropical rainforests.

Unlike previous programs with volatile donations, the TFFF operates as a perpetual donation fund, transforming the logistics of climate financing by directly funding forest conservation.

The idea is relatively disruptive yet straightforward: gather $125 billion from investors and developed countries, apply this total to the financial market, and distribute annual yields of $4 billion exclusively to nations with tropical rainforests.

The $4 per preserved hectare calculation surpasses the current economic value of forest conservation for agriculture, finally reversing the logic of deforestation.

“With Brazil’s forest potential, we shall have conservation income never before seen in the world”, affirms the specialist in public policies Marcelo Behar, special bioeconomics envoy to COP30.

According to him, “the proposal is a measurement of nature protection, with active financing in which earnings go to the maintenance of green areas, regardless of carbon pool”.

A break of financial paradigms

Different from other financial mechanisms, TFFF promises perpetual stability. By decoupling remuneration from complex carbon pricing and focusing on the physical maintenance of vegetation cover, the model should also eliminate the bureaucracy that has historically hindered the progress of other programs.

To Karen Silverwood-Cope, climate director of WRI Brazil, “The fund should work as an investment mechanism which can generate returns, creating positive economic incentives to forest conservation”. She considers TFFF “an important piece of the puzzle and an essential outcome to keep forests standing”.

The innovation goes even further. Each publicly invested dollar should generate four private dollars, resulting in a multiplying effect that could inject hitherto unseen amounts of resources into the bioeconomy.

For Brazil, this means transforming its natural comparative advantage into profit, with projections indicating that the national green economy is set to reach US$140 billion annually by 2032.

The mandatory requirement to send 20% of the resources directly to indigenous people represents a strategic recognition based on empirical data: over half of environmental activists assassinated worldwide belong to indigenous leaderships, while territories under tribal administration see consistently lower deforestation rates.

This clause of the TFFF institutionalizes an approach of operational efficiency, directing resources to actors that show greater effectiveness in forest conservation.

The mechanism also responds to growing demands by investors for ESG criteria, which include social justice in environmental projects.

By prioritizing emerging countries with forest stocks, such as Colombia, Indonesia, Congo, Malaysia, Brazil also articulates a much-needed Global South coalition, redefining the strength of environmental bargaining.

Simultaneously, this attracts financial powerhouses such as the UAE and traditional European partners, thereby bridging global capital and tropical conservation efforts.

“After three consecutive COPs focused on oil, we hope for a nature COP in Brazil”, projects Behar, remembering that the fossil fuel agenda dominated the last three COPs. “It will be a turning point, in which we will present innovative solutions”, he believes.

A crusade for implementation

Although optimistic, veteran COP observers and environmentalists are unanimous in their assessment that one of the main obstacles is capacitating.

Mobilizing $125 billion requires international trust, a benchmark in Brazilian governance, and long-term institutional stability. The oscillating context of environmental politics makes everything even more complex.

However, TFFF offers something that previous mechanisms didn’t: financial predictability based on market return, not on political goodwill.

If successful, it can finally create the structural link between global financial wealth and the preservation of crucial ecosystems, thereby contributing to the planet’s climate stability.